Sunday, April 5, 2020

So you are worried about the Corona Virus.  Well, that's be design.  In the beginning, the US Federal Government and the States saw data that had them concerned.  They sought counsel from their various health experts and those experts quickly came up with charts and graphs raising the alarm.

The problem is that this was something new and the models they talk about were not specific to the current threat.  Ohio governor went before the state and said after one confirmed case where they could not trace the origin, that it was not caught through the community.  The models said there could be 100,000 people infected for every case they saw.  On that basis, they began closing down the state. 

The models further state that the infection rates will double every other day, so by my math, every single person in Ohio should be infected by now.  Scary huh?

Except the models are not accurate and never were.  Today, Ohio shows just over 3700 cases, and 102 deaths.  Obviously, there have been many more cases, most of which people were not tested and have or will likely fully recover.  If there were 100,000 cases 3 weeks ago, 80% would be recovered, but there would still be 20,000 that were in a more serious condition and hospitals would be even more overwhelmed. 

The state knows the numbers are not panning out and how do they react? They double down and tighten restrictions even more.  To someone who actually looks at the numbers, this makes no sense.  When you look at the bar charts that they put out, they don't list the new cases each day, they stack the new cases on top of the existing cases which makes the chart appear to be trending out of control. 

Last week, the federal government passed a multi-trillion dollar recovery/stimulus bill and promised to send out even more money to keep the economy solvent and including money for infrastructure.  Well, there is the problem.  Politicians smell money in the water and they are now posturing to grab as much as they can for their state.  No state will stand up and say "we're fine - we have recovered and really don't need any of your money."  Not one. 

Alexander Frasier Tytler was quoted as saying "democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury."

Well, here we are.  Not sure how we can stop this train except for a full bankruptcy of the national government.